Backlog Refinement is a Scam: Why You Should Stop Grooming and Start Flowing
Overplanning slows teams down by creating false certainty, and the better alternative is to focus on flow and just-in-time decisions.
Deep Dive by NotebookLM.
Backlog refinement wastes time pretending to add clarity when most prioritisation is guesswork that quickly becomes outdated.
Breaking work into small, testable pieces is the only refinement that helps teams deliver faster and with less risk.
Treat the backlog as a lightweight queue of options, not a fixed plan—refine just in time, not all the time.
As a producer, I have never owned the backlog. That job usually belongs to a product manager or designer. But let’s be honest: producers end up living with the consequences. We chase clarity, schedule work, unblock teams, and keep delivery on track.
While I might not control what goes into the backlog, I have a considerable stake in managing it. I used to think that meant pursuing discipline: structured refinement, clean prioritisation, and tidy backlog hygiene.
But over time, I’ve realised that most of what we do to refine the backlog is busy work. It looks like progress, but it rarely helps teams deliver faster or better.
The Backlog Refinement Illusion
Backlog refinement is often considered essential Agile practice ritual teams follow to keep their work structured and predictable. Coaches insist on it, and teams schedule recurring meetings for it. Frameworks treat it as a given.
I used to buy into that mindset completely.
I got frustrated with product managers for not adhering to the refinement routine. I sometimes didn’t take the time to understand what they were up against. I was more interested in whether the process looked clean than whether it helped. (Aditi, if you’re reading this, it's my bad.)
In hindsight, I was too focused on structure and not enough on outcomes. It’s easy to slip into the process for its sake, especially when juggling delivery pressure and trying to “do Agile right.” But ticking all the boxes doesn’t mean you’re moving the game forward.
But what if backlog refinement is doing more harm than good? What if all those hours spent meticulously discussing, estimating, and ordering backlog items are slowing teams down rather than helping them deliver?
It’s time to challenge the common wisdom. Most teams' approach to backlog refinement wastes time, creating an illusion of control rather than actual progress. Let’s explain why.
Prioritisation is Mostly Fiction
In theory, prioritisation sounds excellent. Teams rank backlog items, believing they make informed decisions about what matters most. But the further out a task is, the less anyone truly knows about its value. Business needs shift, player behaviour changes, new platform requirements, and technical challenges emerge. What seemed critical three months ago might be irrelevant today.
Meticulously ordering a massive backlog gives a false sense of certainty. It creates the illusion of control, but in reality, it’s just guesswork based on outdated assumptions. The more time spent fine-tuning the backlog, the more effort is wasted on decisions that will be undone later.
A better approach is just-in-time prioritisation. Instead of trying to predict the future, teams should decide what to work on when it matters—right before they start. This keeps decisions grounded in the latest information and avoids the endless churn of reprioritising tasks that may never get done.
Just-in-time prioritisation also helps teams stay focused on what matters to the studio at that moment. When priorities are shaped by current goals, constraints, and up-to-date insights, teams are far more likely to work on something that moves the needle. Whether it is a critical fix, a fast-follow feature, or a shift in strategy, the work aligns with the studio’s needs when needed, not based on a guess made weeks or months earlier.
Right-Sizing Work: The Only Refinement That Matters
Oversized backlog items might look impressive, but they’re a problem. They hide uncertainty, delay feedback, and clog up the system. The bigger the item, the harder it is to predict and the more likely it is to get stuck. What looks like one feature often contains several pieces of work hiding inside. Instead of flowing smoothly, progress grinds to a halt as teams hit unexpected complexity.
The only refinement that genuinely matters is breaking work down into small, testable, and feedback-driven pieces. This isn’t about making tasks easier—it’s about making them deliverable. Smaller items move faster, reduce risk, and give teams more chances to learn and adapt. They also improve flow metrics like cycle time and help create a steadier system overall.
The key question is simple: Can we deliver something meaningful in a few days? If not, slice it again. It might feel uncomfortable at first—like you’re cutting corners—but you’re reducing waste and increasing feedback. Keep cutting until the work is small enough to finish quickly while providing value. Anything else adds to the backlog bloat.
Your Backlog is a Dumpster Fire (and That’s Okay)
Most teams treat their backlog like a giant to-do list, believing everything will eventually be done. That is a mistake. A backlog is not a commitment. It is a pool of options, a collection of ideas, possibilities, and potential work, not a step-by-step plan for the future.
The truth is that most backlog items will never get done, and that is a good thing. Priorities shift, new opportunities emerge, and some ideas do not hold up over time. Hanging onto everything creates noise, making it harder to focus on what matters.
Instead of managing an ever-growing list of maybes, teams should regularly purge old, low-priority junk. If an item has been sitting untouched for months, it is probably unimportant. Deleting it does not mean it was a bad idea. It just means it is not worth doing right now. Keeping the backlog lean makes it easier to spot real priorities and avoid wasting time on outdated plans.
A bloated backlog also weighs down the team emotionally. It creates pressure to “get through the list” and makes it harder to see what matters now. Cleaning it up is not about throwing away good ideas. It is about protecting focus and reducing noise. If something might be helpful later, park it somewhere else—an idea bank, a wishlist, or anything outside your main delivery space. That way, your backlog stays sharp, actionable, and aligned with what the team is ready to deliver next. A clean backlog supports better flow, faster decisions, and less mental clutter.
Refinement Meetings: A Massive Time Sink
Refinement meetings are often just Agile theatre. Teams gather, discuss backlog items in detail, and try to predict the unknown. Hours are spent debating estimates, defining acceptance criteria, and reordering tasks that may never be worked on. While it feels productive, most of it is wasted effort.
A better approach is just-in-time thinking. Instead of trying to refine everything in advance, teams should refine work only when it is about to start. This keeps discussions relevant and based on the latest information rather than outdated guesses.
Refinement should not be a separate step. It should be part of the natural flow of work. Teams can break down and clarify tasks as they pull them in, keeping the process lightweight and efficient. This avoids unnecessary meetings and focuses on delivering value rather than maintaining a perfect backlog.
A lot of refinement culture is driven by fear—fear of being unprepared, fear of the unknown, fear of looking messy. However, trying to control complexity with early detail rarely works. Most of what gets discussed will change anyway once the real work begins. By refining too early and too broadly, teams waste time aligning on plans they’ll later have to redo. Instead, refine with the people doing the work, as needed. That way, the conversation is timely, focused, and grounded in reality.
Flow Metrics Over Guesswork
Teams waste too much time debating what might be necessary. Endless discussions about backlog order and priority create an illusion of control, but they are guesswork. Instead of relying on opinions and assumptions, teams should use flow metrics to drive decisions.
Cycle time and WIP limits provide a clearer picture of how work moves through the system. These metrics highlight bottlenecks, show where work gets stuck, and help teams adjust in real-time. No amount of backlog grooming can match the insights gained from tracking delivery patterns.
The goal should be a stable system, not a perfectly ordered backlog. Work should flow predictably, with small, well-sized items moving through steadily. Prioritisation still matters, but it should be based on real constraints and delivery data rather than an arbitrary list of what seemed essential weeks ago.
A stable system is not only easier to manage but also easier to learn from. Flow metrics show what is happening, not what you think is happening. They help teams spot trouble early, track the impact of process changes, and make decisions based on evidence rather than opinion—metrics turn delivery into a feedback loop. You try something, see what changes, and adjust from there. This is much better than debating backlog orders or relying on gut feeling. Let the data do the talking.
The Alternative: Backlogs Without the Nonsense
A backlog does not need to be a carefully ordered roadmap. It works better as a simple queue. Instead of treating it like a master plan, teams should focus on what is next and ignore the distant future until it matters.
The goal is not to sort and refine hundreds of tasks that may never get done. The goal is to ensure that the next valuable piece of work is ready to start. Anything beyond that is just noise. Keeping the backlog lightweight and flexible allows teams to adapt rather than waste time maintaining an outdated list.
Traditional backlog management relies on the INVEST model, but a more practical approach is FIRST: Feedbackable, Independent, Right-sized, Small, and Testable. A work item that does not meet these criteria is not ready. Instead of overplanning, teams should focus on ensuring each item is clear, deliverable, and capable of generating helpful feedback.
Treating the backlog as a queue also helps protect flow and avoid false commitments. A tightly ordered list can give the impression that every item is scheduled and promised, even when nothing has been agreed upon. This can mislead stakeholders and create pressure to stick to outdated priorities. A flexible backlog makes it clear that real-time needs, not artificial deadlines, shape priorities. It also supports better WIP control since teams focus only on what is ready and relevant. Letting go of the roadmap mindset is not a lack of planning—it is a more thoughtful, responsive way to deliver.
Stop Refining, Start Delivering
Backlog refinement is often a crutch. Teams use it to delay decisions, avoid uncertainty, and create the illusion of control. But no amount of grooming will make a backlog perfect. The real work happens when teams start delivering, not when they spend hours debating what might be necessary.
Flow always beats planning. A well-functioning team focuses on moving work through the system rather than maintaining a perfectly ordered list. The best way to improve predictability and delivery is to work on smaller, right-sized items and let real progress drive decisions.
The best backlog is the one that does not get in your way. It should be a simple list of options, not a massive burden. Instead of refining endlessly, teams should focus on keeping work moving and delivering value as soon as possible.